Latest update

I have been away.
And for disclosure, I sold the majority of my holding since the last post, although it was to raise capital for other matters. I am still holding and would have held the whole amount due to the below. As you know it breached the 2.00 floor briefly. And why not, the Anaconda deal is such nonsense.

As I have mentioned before, the only value proposition in BTA is the value in Inavir.
We got a little more sense of that value in CSLs latest deal with Biocryst for permavir.
That is worthy of mention on a few fronts.

1. CSL has established influenza as a separate arm of the business bioCSL with its own executive director. Until now, it held the vaccines business. CSL is a major biopharmaceutical with its roots in Australia and has played big in plasma, vaccines and also developed the HPV vaccine. It has learnt through its activity in plasma that global market domination pays dividends.

2. It's strange that Biocryst would come up on CSLs radar. And the price it paid for permavir IV is higher than I would have expected. Biocrysts share price has done well.

3. The influenza treatment market is undervalued, and fragmented. No-one markets it well because they fear being labelled anti vaccine, even though with influenza vaccine that's a nearly reasonable proposition. That fragmentation leads to value, as we know looking at Biota's SP.

So, the CSL - Biocryst deal does put a better value on inavir.
It also signals a move by CSL into influenza treatment, albeit IV.
Further, CSL would already know Biota and probably watched with amusement at its value destruction over the decade. The attempted extension of relenza patent might be part of a wider deal.

Whether CSL is looking at inavir remains to be seen.
But if so, why look at raising more capital, as they seem to be preparing to do? The potential issue of another tranche of shares being issued by the company might be linked. Even in the US biotech bubble, its so hard to see them raising more capital to trial inavir themselves when they have burnt many bridges with capital markets and because the patent clock on inavir is ticking so fast.If some of their recent major holders think they should go it alone, and will back them, then quite frankly they are nuts.

So, in summary: if you think CSL has an interest in inavir, prospects might be brighter. Of course, that's difficult to assess unless you are an insider.
But if they announce a new capital raise to trial inavir themselves, it's good night from me. In that event I will sell the rest of my holdings.

CTO request was flagged in the last 10Q

which I read in some detail yesterday.
relates entirely to the Anaconda deal.
So, nothing to see or get excited about.
Sorry.

trading strike

they may as well have placed the company in a trading halt - 8500 shares traded yesterday!

And I suspect that will be the case until the CTO is explained or lifted. Unlike other companies with ongoing business and other reasons to continue to trade, in this little guy the CTO now completely overshadows any notion of market transparency.

and given the BOTA past has held nasty rather than nice surprises, people are sitting on their hands.

scenario to pass the time

someone had their eye on BOTA's cash.

then the Anaconda deal came along. Very generous deal to buy a French company trialling a topical treatment in Argentina. Yep, Argentina. Either genuine (silly) deal, or deliberate attempt to flush out suitor.

either way, new suitor in waiting doesn't want 8 million in cash gone and a bunch of new shares on the register.

new holder/suitor moves before Anaconda deal settles

trashes deal

company forcing suitors hand

executives and board get a few shares first

shareholders get a confidential treatment order, which is not much different to what we've been getting anyhow

...or not.

Confidential Treatment Order

filed today.

no idea but hopefully pointing the way to M&A.

possibly a major/substantial shareholder selling to an acquirer, and company witholding release of that change in ownership. There are only 2 current holders in that major category that requires an announcement, I think.

or could be just more smoke and mirrors. The drop in shareprice would seem at odds with a positive view of the situation.

there are long time limits on these orders

let's see

shareholder moves for last quarter

can be found here

 http://whalewisdom.com/stock/bota  :   just make sure you nominate the 31/3 quarter

Sellers were Baker Bros, FMR, BVF, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Venbio

Buyers included krensavage, ra and senzar topping up their initial purchases.

Broadfin and Clay (East Hill) were unchanged. There is a wider gap between these top 2 holders and the rest, I think.

What does it mean? I guess some of the bigger players who were in and are now out might have a more persistently negative bias toward the company in its future pursuits.

East Hill confound me. They have lost so much money on this company, and share that experience with all long holders. They must be easily placated. Broadfin have the capacity to become activist, but I wonder if they would here without a bigger stake.

The newer smaller entrants this past quarter might argue that the cash backing protects them from further falls from this current very low market cap, as does the small but steady royalty flow. Some truth there, except that groups they would expect to sell to in the future (see sellers above) may have had their fingers burnt.

Some avian flu around in US poultry, keeping the subject in the news.

Third quarter presentation

A brief summary would be: we're planning and starting several small Ph 1 and 2 trials over the next couple of years and hopefully distract you all from spending around 12 million (annualised) on salaries, general and admin expenses, legals etc.

Which would be great if the market attributed any value to the pipeline, but as you all can see, it doesn't. That might change, but only if and when they are successful. So, the market is heavily discounting this pipeline: it's virtually worthless at present.

Not a single word on LANI in the conference call.
The results release tells us they have not yet completed their brief to the FDA and therefore no request for, or date to, meet with them is yet scheduled.
And nothing on partnering that compound.
LANI is their only current asset worth anything and it appears it won't be in clinical trials this winter.

They are still appealing the USPTO decision on relenza, without explanation. It has been rejected several times, and presumably we are incurring some costs to assist our loyal friends at GSK.