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The new positions in Biota were published today (for transactions in the quarter ending 31 December).

Many funds had either significantly sold down or completely sold out of Biota in that quarter, explaining the large chunky sales.

BlackRock and JP Morgan were the heaviest sellers.

In their place 2 or 3 specialist biotech funds have emerged as holders: RA Capital, Senzar Asset Management and to a smaller extent a new fund Venbio.

Further, East Hill emerged from its hibernation and bought another 400,000 taking it to just under 10% of the company.

Baker Bros and a couple of others held their nerve. Broadfin is still there, but didn't buy more.

And why not I guess: the stock is at cash backing, so hopefully it has hit the bottom. Unlike some biotechs with no cash, where the bottom can be very deep and distant.

One small thing that emerges are the number of links to Vertex: Landon Clay, RA Capital, and a couple of other smaller links.

The BIO CEO presentation was interesting. Not so much for the presentation, but for the questions. Biota management get to field very few questions publicly. Joe Patti was forced to acknowledge a key issue in the company's strategy for vapendavir. If they keep ignoring it, it won't go away.

Vap might prove to be effective, in asthmatics with proven HRV infection. Let's say it is, for the sake of argument. 

The subset of proven HRV to clinically enrolled HRV might be as low as 40%. OK. When the drug goes to the FDA itself and its subcommittees, it's plausible, maybe even likely, that the FDA might say two things:

1. That any level of adverse effect is unacceptable (see plecoranil) given many people without HRV might take it and/or

2. That it's not reasonable to treat the 60% of people with clinical common cold symptoms who don't have HRV to get a response in the 40% who do. This is because HRV is self-limiting. SO, they might approve the drug in proven HRV exacerbations. Which would be fine, if there was a rapid HRV test. Which there isn't yet.

The BARDA contract is nearly disentangled. That became more of an issue than analysing or explaining why they stopped the trial. We have very little information on that.

Relenza and LANI will earn a little more than expected this FY which is great news because the only thing supporting the sp is cash, and the more BOTA burns cash the more the sp will drop.

Finally, no news on LANI. A 10-20 million dollar upfront and a few % royalty is probably all that can be hoped for, but there will be some element of credibility in inking a deal, and the cash will be useful as an addition to a takeover... sometime next year. 

I don't know what East Hill and Broadfin are asking management and the board to do. But settling BARDA, settling LANI, and packaging the cash and royalty streams with vapendavir and RSV might be somebody's idea of a reasonable purchase.