Saturday 21 December 2013

Inavir approved for use in prevention in Japan

which is nice. It took just over a year for approval. The trials supporting the application were adequate, but from memory the first trial influenza season was influenced by the low rate of influenza spread in family contacts in the controls and it had to be extended another year.

Despite the efforts of NSA, it appears odd that the announcement came after the end of trading on Friday. This is despite news wires reporting the approval  hours earlier. Maybe confirmation needed to be made in writing by a certain DS official: but hours of good frothy trading were lost.

Having said that, the approval is good news but will make little material impact on earnings. Inavir would have been bought into the Japanese stockpile in any event, but this might see it extend favoritism past Tamiflu on effectiveness and convenience. Cost remains an issue.

Again, the froth will probably be blown off the share price in short time, unless bigger players start to become interested.

Hopefully, the next BOTA announcement with Daiichi Sankyo mentioned will be the most important: the details of the ROW royalty arrangement. It is extremely important that this occurs in a timely way and on terms favourable to BOTA.

A legal case around ROW Inavir rights would be terrible.

Have a Happy Christmas. The year to come holds promise for BOTA, but I've thought that every year for the last 10.




Thursday 12 December 2013

Hunter Hall AGM video presentations

offer a valid and consistent explanation for the BOTA sell down by HH.

They have had a clear change in guidelines and direction, from major (often controlling) holders with occasionally activist involvement to passive holders with a maximum limit of 3% holding of any company's stock.

They have sold down to that level in BOTA.

They have even sold down stellar performers like Sirtex, although they are making an exception to the 3% limit for them.

As I said, if it has helped the liquidity and hasn't hurt the share price, then fine. Just seems weird strategy.


Saturday 7 December 2013

Well, that was easy

Hunter Hall sells down to 1 million shares.

Why would they sell out, having offered critical support for the company's move to Nasdaq through all it's disastrous stages for presumably the rich benefits to follow? Instead they sell at the lowest price in years.

And especially if, having a seat on the Board, they know what the next 12 months has to offer.

Mr Hill will soon vacate the Board, I suppose.

Words fail me. I guess it's all to benefit the Hunter Hall shareholder or unit holder. Somehow.

We'll discover the buyers eventually.





Thursday 5 December 2013

Some increased institutional buying reported at

 http://whalewisdom.com/stock/bota

- it's a good site for tracking institutional activity in BOTA, and as you can see there has been a significant increase in institutional buying. However, it could be just the placement of the 1 million shares last quarter. It will be interesting to eventually discover where the last 2 million went.

Blackrock have bought into BOTA.

Doesn't recognise East Hill or Hunter Hall, though.

I wish these 13F filings were easier to find and more timely - need to find a better source.

Not that the share price has reflected this: we're back to $4 after that brief uplift.

The company has announced dosing for the Northern hemisphere LANI trials. The influenza season here in Melbourne was very late: cases in late spring!