Baker Bros. Advisors is a specialist, and successful, healthcare fund manager.
It reported picking up just over a million shares in Biota during the December quarter. This was probably the shares offloaded by Hunter Hall.
Be interesting to see how many more they picked up in the capital raising. Won't find that out for a while though: 45 days from March 31!
Good validation, from a fund with significant credibility.
Sunday 16 February 2014
Tuesday 11 February 2014
Any questions? Anyone? Anyone?
Oh yes, thanks, hi, I wanted to ask a couple of questions regarding today's second quarter results and update.
1. It's disappointing to hear that Igloo might not fully recruit this Northern Winter. Actually I think a PCR positive rate of 50% is pretty good if the study is recruiting from family practices, rather than ERs. Also, you said that it takes 2 weeks for a PCR result? We'd expect a PCR result in a day or two down under.
Also highlights one of the problems in flu treatments in primary care without rapid flu diagnostics. Can we get into the rapid flu diagnostic market again?
Is the use of 2 different dosages of LANI part of the problem regarding sample size?
Also you mentioned going back to Barda? You mean for more than 250 million?
In any event, isn't it the FDA you need to speak to regarding the recruitment? Is there a mechanism to discuss Igloo with FDA before deciding to extend it, other than submitting an NDA?
Also, doesn't the sample size depend a bit on results? If the benefit of LANI is better than expected, might that mean no extension is required? Can you analyse interim results to determine this?
Also, putting the study back another year reduces the patent life of the compound doesn't it? Or are there extensions possible?
2. Why does the company need to do another Phase 1 and 2b study for vapendavir? It has already spent over 10 million on a Phase 2b for vapendavir in asthma. Why do you need a "new" tablet formulation? Is the new tablet form worth starting from scratch? How much do you expect to spend?
Isn't there a similar problem regarding rapid rhinovirus diagnosis? Can you develop such a test if you want funders to eventually reimburse this compound?
3. Is the restructuring complete?
4. Have you had any face to face meetings with Daiichi Sankyo regarding the ROW arrangement regarding LANI? When do you expect to be able to announce an update on this issue?
5. How many analysts are now covering Biota?
Thanks
1. It's disappointing to hear that Igloo might not fully recruit this Northern Winter. Actually I think a PCR positive rate of 50% is pretty good if the study is recruiting from family practices, rather than ERs. Also, you said that it takes 2 weeks for a PCR result? We'd expect a PCR result in a day or two down under.
Also highlights one of the problems in flu treatments in primary care without rapid flu diagnostics. Can we get into the rapid flu diagnostic market again?
Is the use of 2 different dosages of LANI part of the problem regarding sample size?
Also you mentioned going back to Barda? You mean for more than 250 million?
In any event, isn't it the FDA you need to speak to regarding the recruitment? Is there a mechanism to discuss Igloo with FDA before deciding to extend it, other than submitting an NDA?
Also, doesn't the sample size depend a bit on results? If the benefit of LANI is better than expected, might that mean no extension is required? Can you analyse interim results to determine this?
Also, putting the study back another year reduces the patent life of the compound doesn't it? Or are there extensions possible?
2. Why does the company need to do another Phase 1 and 2b study for vapendavir? It has already spent over 10 million on a Phase 2b for vapendavir in asthma. Why do you need a "new" tablet formulation? Is the new tablet form worth starting from scratch? How much do you expect to spend?
Isn't there a similar problem regarding rapid rhinovirus diagnosis? Can you develop such a test if you want funders to eventually reimburse this compound?
3. Is the restructuring complete?
4. Have you had any face to face meetings with Daiichi Sankyo regarding the ROW arrangement regarding LANI? When do you expect to be able to announce an update on this issue?
5. How many analysts are now covering Biota?
Thanks
Saturday 1 February 2014
Post Capital Raising 1
East Hill have reduced their holdings by 100,000 or so shares.
However, the latest SEC filing reports their pre-dilution holding: post dilution my estimate is that they hold about 13 % of the company. That is, unless they picked up some more in the recent secondary offer, but I doubt it.
With the exit of Hunter Hall, East Hill was the biggest shareholder by far, and at current prices is still deep underwater. I suspect they remain the biggest single holder post-offer, but we'll see with further reports.
In that regard, NASDAQ is way behind the ASX: changes in significant holdings are reported almost immediately (7 days I think) on ASX. Nasdaq allows 30 days from the end of the quarter the change occurred!
The current influenza season is a little more lethal than usual, but otherwise standard. It does highlight to analysts and new investors that, although seasonal, each year holds a sales stream. Unfortunately we always have to wait until April/May for what are essentially annual Tamiflu and Inavir sales figures.
The share price has had some dramatic fluctuations this week, springing back to $5 at its end. Whether we are seeing the last efforts of post- offer price support, or the real market in effect, I can't tell.
However, the latest SEC filing reports their pre-dilution holding: post dilution my estimate is that they hold about 13 % of the company. That is, unless they picked up some more in the recent secondary offer, but I doubt it.
With the exit of Hunter Hall, East Hill was the biggest shareholder by far, and at current prices is still deep underwater. I suspect they remain the biggest single holder post-offer, but we'll see with further reports.
In that regard, NASDAQ is way behind the ASX: changes in significant holdings are reported almost immediately (7 days I think) on ASX. Nasdaq allows 30 days from the end of the quarter the change occurred!
The current influenza season is a little more lethal than usual, but otherwise standard. It does highlight to analysts and new investors that, although seasonal, each year holds a sales stream. Unfortunately we always have to wait until April/May for what are essentially annual Tamiflu and Inavir sales figures.
The share price has had some dramatic fluctuations this week, springing back to $5 at its end. Whether we are seeing the last efforts of post- offer price support, or the real market in effect, I can't tell.
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