Thursday 17 July 2014
hold that thought
whalewisdom seems to have changed it's statement on BOTA holdings for the June quarter. So, take the report in my previous post with some doubt until confirmed, probably in mid August. Wonder where they got the initial list of changes.
Wednesday 16 July 2014
more sellers identified
JP Morgan sold 2.5 million
Blackrock sold over 1.2 million
Visium sold 600,000
No notices of institutional buys so far! Another month for full reporting.
We wait to see what Hunter Hall and Baker Bros did.
Blackrock sold over 1.2 million
Visium sold 600,000
No notices of institutional buys so far! Another month for full reporting.
We wait to see what Hunter Hall and Baker Bros did.
Tuesday 15 July 2014
Outside sellers and inside buyers.
Its nearly 3 months since BARDA withdrew their grant from Biota.
We can presume that rather than executives or board members owning up to failures in losing BARDA, it's only the scientists in Melbourne who will bear the loss. We are supposed to believe that the loss of the BARDA grant, which will cost 150 million in cash and about the same in market cap, is in no way related to anything the board or the executives did, or omitted to do. Maybe so, but it needs to be demonstrated. A fuller explanation from BARDA would be helpful in that regard.
The decision to basically completely abandon research hasn't helped. Removing 10 million from a 12 million annual research program leaves someone to photocopy and go to a couple of conferences. Every researcher who stays will be looking for another job - you would be a fool to trust the company with your skills. The general and administration budget, on the other hand, sits at around 10 million pa.
In the last 3 months, the only thing we can say is that there was an avalanche of selling by institutions, and some insider buying. Which is more important?
It might suggest that the company is no longer deemed an underpriced long term serious prospect for a significant company that will be rerated with growth. But more likely a short term kicker on a turnaround from an impossibly low base - a bottom that only the executives and some long term investors like us understand how ridiculously deep it was, even if it was a cashbox. Even it was... a NABI ! Maybe someone will attempt a reverse takeover of BOTA for a NASDAQ listing and the cash!
Any future share price lift from here if it comes will come from retail buyers and not the likes of Morgan Stanley. Further, there can't have been deals in negotiation, otherwise the buying wouldn't be allowed. So no pending deals either.
There's no doubt they are waiting on some clinical trial news and some BARDA negotiation outcomes to mix into the news flow. But the best they will get is some positive LANI trial results, and some extra cash from BARDA. Still way less prospects than they had 6 months ago. Maybe a partnering deal will follow. But partnering a one drug company with no researchers? There is no alternative vision offered to shareholders at present. The irony is that biotech is still enjoying a boom, so other people's assets are expensive.
We can presume that rather than executives or board members owning up to failures in losing BARDA, it's only the scientists in Melbourne who will bear the loss. We are supposed to believe that the loss of the BARDA grant, which will cost 150 million in cash and about the same in market cap, is in no way related to anything the board or the executives did, or omitted to do. Maybe so, but it needs to be demonstrated. A fuller explanation from BARDA would be helpful in that regard.
The decision to basically completely abandon research hasn't helped. Removing 10 million from a 12 million annual research program leaves someone to photocopy and go to a couple of conferences. Every researcher who stays will be looking for another job - you would be a fool to trust the company with your skills. The general and administration budget, on the other hand, sits at around 10 million pa.
In the last 3 months, the only thing we can say is that there was an avalanche of selling by institutions, and some insider buying. Which is more important?
It might suggest that the company is no longer deemed an underpriced long term serious prospect for a significant company that will be rerated with growth. But more likely a short term kicker on a turnaround from an impossibly low base - a bottom that only the executives and some long term investors like us understand how ridiculously deep it was, even if it was a cashbox. Even it was... a NABI ! Maybe someone will attempt a reverse takeover of BOTA for a NASDAQ listing and the cash!
Any future share price lift from here if it comes will come from retail buyers and not the likes of Morgan Stanley. Further, there can't have been deals in negotiation, otherwise the buying wouldn't be allowed. So no pending deals either.
There's no doubt they are waiting on some clinical trial news and some BARDA negotiation outcomes to mix into the news flow. But the best they will get is some positive LANI trial results, and some extra cash from BARDA. Still way less prospects than they had 6 months ago. Maybe a partnering deal will follow. But partnering a one drug company with no researchers? There is no alternative vision offered to shareholders at present. The irony is that biotech is still enjoying a boom, so other people's assets are expensive.
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