Friday, 22 May 2015

scenario to pass the time

someone had their eye on BOTA's cash.

then the Anaconda deal came along. Very generous deal to buy a French company trialling a topical treatment in Argentina. Yep, Argentina. Either genuine (silly) deal, or deliberate attempt to flush out suitor.

either way, new suitor in waiting doesn't want 8 million in cash gone and a bunch of new shares on the register.

new holder/suitor moves before Anaconda deal settles

trashes deal

company forcing suitors hand

executives and board get a few shares first

shareholders get a confidential treatment order, which is not much different to what we've been getting anyhow

...or not.



Thursday, 21 May 2015

Confidential Treatment Order

filed today.

no idea but hopefully pointing the way to M&A.

possibly a major/substantial shareholder selling to an acquirer, and company witholding release of that change in ownership. There are only 2 current holders in that major category that requires an announcement, I think.

or could be just more smoke and mirrors. The drop in shareprice would seem at odds with a positive view of the situation.

there are long time limits on these orders

let's see




Friday, 15 May 2015

shareholder moves for last quarter

can be found here

 http://whalewisdom.com/stock/bota  :   just make sure you nominate the 31/3 quarter

Sellers were Baker Bros, FMR, BVF, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Venbio

Buyers included krensavage, ra and senzar topping up their initial purchases.

Broadfin and Clay (East Hill) were unchanged. There is a wider gap between these top 2 holders and the rest, I think.

What does it mean? I guess some of the bigger players who were in and are now out might have a more persistently negative bias toward the company in its future pursuits.

East Hill confound me. They have lost so much money on this company, and share that experience with all long holders. They must be easily placated. Broadfin have the capacity to become activist, but I wonder if they would here without a bigger stake.

The newer smaller entrants this past quarter might argue that the cash backing protects them from further falls from this current very low market cap, as does the small but steady royalty flow. Some truth there, except that groups they would expect to sell to in the future (see sellers above) may have had their fingers burnt.

Some avian flu around in US poultry, keeping the subject in the news.








Thursday, 7 May 2015

Third quarter presentation

A brief summary would be: we're planning and starting several small Ph 1 and 2 trials over the next couple of years and hopefully distract you all from spending around 12 million (annualised) on salaries, general and admin expenses, legals etc.

Which would be great if the market attributed any value to the pipeline, but as you all can see, it doesn't. That might change, but only if and when they are successful. So, the market is heavily discounting this pipeline: it's virtually worthless at present.

Not a single word on LANI in the conference call.
The results release tells us they have not yet completed their brief to the FDA and therefore no request for, or date to, meet with them is yet scheduled.
And nothing on partnering that compound.
LANI is their only current asset worth anything and it appears it won't be in clinical trials this winter.

They are still appealing the USPTO decision on relenza, without explanation. It has been rejected several times, and presumably we are incurring some costs to assist our loyal friends at GSK.












Monday, 20 April 2015

Simon Tuckers photo gone

from the management page of Biota's website.
If he is no longer with the company, then that excises all Australian senior connections with the company, with the exception of Jim Fox.
There are still a great number of Australian based shareholders who hold a significant number of shares. What an odd situation to have arrived at, although there were people present at the meeting to vote on the Nasdaq move who predicted this outcome.

Wednesday, 8 April 2015

CEO buys shares

Normally, a good thing. Especially when SP is near its lows.

But, it also means there is no M&A on, or near, the table.

I'd prefer M&A.


Friday, 20 March 2015

A question for you

Did Biota's announcement yesterday mean that they have been granted an extension of patent (and therefore royalties) over relenza, or not? Read it




As previously reported on August 25, 2014, GlaxoSmithKline, plc (GSK) filed an appeal to the United States Patent Trial and Appeal Board in relation to the pending patent application No. 08/737,141 related to Relenza ® . On March 16, 2015, the company was informed that the United States Patent Trial and Appeal Board had issued a decision denying the appeal and affirming the Examiner’s prima facie case of obviousness rejection under 35 U.S.C. 103(a). GSK and the company intend to pursue available legal options with respect to this decision and to continue to seek issuance of this pending patent. No assurance can be given that the pursuit of any such options will be successful. Issued patents relating to Relenza ® outside of the Unite States are unaffected, and will expire in May 2015 in the major countries of the European Union, and July 2019 in Japan.



Trying to find a plain English translation somewhere.

It appears GSKs appeal against patent extension was denied. Why are both GSK and BOTA pursuing legal options?