I'm proud to announce that Ozbiota has now gained the allegiance of 1% of the total shares on issue of BOTA.
Thank you for taking the time and effort. It is amazing to read how much in common you have with each other.
Should I call the SEC?
Get the message out there and let's recruit to the aim of 1 million shares, which is over 3% of the company.
I intend to invite members to a dinner meeting in the near future. It will be in Melbourne, and I hope most of you can make it.
Neuraminidase inhibitor treatment of influenza is one of our country's greatest scientific inventions. It's impact is greater than the cochlear implant or the HPV vaccine: two wonderful inventions that have created health benefits yet those two inventions have also generated significant returns for the shareholders who invested capital to create, test and market them.
I think that's at the hub of small Australian shareholders' anger and frustration in BOTA.
I'm thinking of posting an article on Seekingalpha that relates to Biota and the recent lani results from Japan. Specifically, I would like to touch on cash burn, cash assets, barda contract as it relates to future cash flows, pipeline, nasdaq move. any information you can provide is appreciated
ReplyDeleteGeorge: all the data type information you need is in the most recent quarterly report. Go to their website.
DeleteBasically, 70 million in cash reserves; 12 million income for the quarter and 12 million cash burn for the quarter.
Income comes from LANI royalties and BARDA contract.
Expenses come from research, BARDA contract expenses and general administration.
The Nasdaq move cost 6 million in cash and about 70 million dollars in lost capitalisation. The company's valuation is sitting on those merger lows, and has done so for nearly 8 months (it hit those lows just prior to merger).
Barda contract as it applies to future cash flows: well, that is one of the questions we would like answered. It is answered in Japan, and you can also see roughly where the royalty rate is there. Approval for prophylactic use might help a little more.
But for the Rest of World, there are no answers, only speculation. The company would have us believe that they will own the right to market LANI in the US after using the BARDA grant to fund the FDA NDI (completing all trials successfully). They would then have to negotiate with Daichi Sankyo who own 50% of the compound. BOTA's general vaguely off the record verbal guidance was that the deal would mirror the deal offered to BOTA by DS for the Japanese rights (where DS were in the same position as BOTA): thus, 4% for DS and the rest for BOTA. BOTA was aiming to take it to market for stockpile and maybe do a deal for seasonal market.
DS have shown that seasonal LANI can generate good revenues, much as Roche has shown with Tamiflu.
But there has been nothing to suggest that a deal is imminent. The previous administration even suggested they had no intention to do a deal until completion of FDA requirements and approval. They argued that they would be in a much stronger position to negotiate. Except that their share price has tanked, and will stay tanked BECAUSE there is no deal (and not much faith that they can do a deal). And DS did their deal before they started trials for marketing approval. I think that is a more prudent course.
Those who follow BOTA know that this company has not made a deal in 5 years.
Oh unless you call the NABI merger a deal. In which case, it was a very poor one: it cost 6 million in cash and 70 million in capitalisation. Deals usually add value.
As for pipeline, again read the strategic review.
Hep C out. RSV still in although with a backup compound. They don't know whether they still want HRV (common cold) after spending 20 million on a phase 2b that was trumpeted as a success. Gyrase remains for gram negative. Gram positive program cut. Influenza remains.
Not sure what a 30% reduction in scientific staff will do. Clearly the company is recruiting executive staff in Georgia.
Go post on seeking alpha and do your best.
Thanks. I will put something together. You sound a bit jaded. Is this worth my time?
ReplyDeleteGood grief, you're right, I sounded a bit.. angry. Sorry. I have to stop watching the share price before I post.
ReplyDeleteDo your best. Truth is a new investor is getting the company for almost nothing above cash. I'd be interested to know what the readers think of Russell Plumb.
Regards