Yawn, and not just because it's late

the annual results announcement and associated webcast went off with a whimper.

Let's work backwards.

Only two analysts asked questions: Guggenheim and Bioscience Managers. I think Bioscience are newish to the Biota register. But only two analysts was a bit embarrassing.

And the questions were hardly incisive. One about the risk to the trial of a slow flu season, the other about currency hedging strategies.

The Q&A session at the Melbourne shareholder update a couple of months ago was far better. The critical issue of DS royalties wasn't addressed by the analysts and it remains the single most important corporate issue facing the executive. It was addressed at the Melbourne meeting.

As for the results, there has been some deck clearing. Lots of options and shares issued (to old and new management) resulted in significant increases in general administrative expenses, and hopefully these won;t be there next FY.

The cash balance at the end of the 2014 year will be less than originally projected: around 57-62 million. Severance has affected that figure, along with Aussie dollar changes.

Clinical programs

Vapendavir will now be partnered or co-developed. All the reasons Patti raised for not proceeding with VAP were entirely predictable prior to spending 20 million on the Phase 2b:

1. HRV only causes 30% of common cold events
2. There is no simple fast POC (point of care) test for HRV so you have to enrol lots more people than are eventually included in studies.
3. That means studies have to be very large. Also means that without such a test, doctors won't use the drug.
4. As a result of 1-3, registration path extremely difficult.

In the final analysis, the decision to pursue VAP Phase 2b trial was as bad ( but slightly less expensive) as the decision to not settle litigation with GSK.

If there is no partner, it will be quietly shelved forever.

RSV

They are pursing a couple of other fusion inhibitors. They will identify a couple of lead compounds and then start preclinical work including animal and in vitro toxicology. Very very early stuff. Probably designed to just keep a couple of their better scientists in the company for a bit longer, because there is no other science happening.

No mention of gyrase tonight.

So, 2 programs (not sure if that includes VAP) other than LANI Phase 3 trials. Phase 1 LANI in children and asthmatics. Major board changes. Cash burnt a bit faster than expected.

Not sure how much visibility has increased.

Good night