This secondary offer got away without a glitch.
No, I didn't get an allocation. Just a brief email telling me all the shares had been allocated the previous week. But my guess is that even Jamie Packer couldn't have got shares if his enquiry had come from an Australian server.
The share price rose Friday, probably on the back of a small avian influenza story coming out of Asia. There is still a fantasy among some that the FDA will grant emergency approval to inavir. It's like UFO sightings - some people just keep believing. Still, over 5 is a welcome sight. Especially given that some of those who were allocated shares at 4.30 would be very glad to give them up for a quick 20%.
Influenza in US is very widespread, so I think the study will recruit fully and hopefully early. If I was a fantasist, it would be that FDA would listen to a story that the current Phase 2/3 is adequate for approval without formal Phase 3 next year.
Instead, we wait now for evidence that Daiichi will do a deal. There is no other news of any interest in this stock other than that.
The FDA would save BARDA plenty money if approval process was expedited.
ReplyDeleteThe logic of a Phase 3 escapes me if Phase 2 provides conclusive results. A Phase 2 trial that incorporates a diverse patient population and diverse flu types. What will Phase 3 accomplish that has not already been accomplished by Phase 2?
I suppose maybe due to the 80mg dosage. However, if efficacy is confirmed for the 40mg dosage while 80mg is no different to 40mg then one would question the need for a Phase 3 given the above and data available from Japan.
adf: Phase 3 will probably be a head to head with tamiflu rather than placebo.
DeleteBut you're correct - they would save the US taxpayer 10's of millions.
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ReplyDeleteThanks for letting us know about allocation. Notwithstanding a rather excessive holding of BIOTA, I might have been interested in some more.
ReplyDeleteNot holding my breath regarding a deal with DS. Just hoping that the $AUD continues to decline and is not rescued by LNG exports ramping up before phase III is complete.
Still plenty of risk ahead, unknown arrangement with DS, non-zero (though agreed low) chance of trial failure, new competition coming to market, and more games to be played in "improving liquidity".
One thing I am certain of though, is that liquidity (or the number of shares available for sale) will suddenly improve if the share price gets to US$10 - though I would be hoping for twice that!
Chris, you're always the voice of calm and reason. Yep, when the stock hits a few targets and excites the market, liquidity will improve. Presumably, there will be more people to make unhappy if they keep issuing from now.
DeleteThe DS deal has to be done this year.
If they don't then maybe they can't: that's how I would interpret it.